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Wealth Mgmt Essay

4287 words - 18 pages


Mr. Susilo Hatono

Client Meeting November 2011





Partnering and Leading You to Your Success


Our Trusted Team and Approach
Our relationship is established on EPIC values – Excellence, Professionalism, Integrity, Commitment
You are the centre of everything we do
We are committed to listening, understanding, and determining your investment needs, objectives, preferences, constraints and risk tolerance; together with a thorough analysis of the economy, we seek to give you the most up-to-date and personalised solutions to achieve your goals and objectives.

Mr. Susilo Hatono
Your Team of Trusted ...view middle of the document...

8 trillion Euros – 120% GDP • Spain also has large amount of doubtful debt


Euro-zone Crisis – Forecast
Forecasted Short, Medium & Long Term Implications
•Prevented a potentially deep recession •Tightening of credit conditions •Bought valuable time •Instill temporary confidence

Short Term

Medium Term

• Gradual Recovery • Increased confidence in buying debt • Increased liquidity & gradual loosening of credit conditions

• Should the EFSF be insufficient to bailout Italy, Spain etc., risk of default high • Run on the bank and financial instability of the world economy

Long Term

• Reduce Greece’s debt to 120% in 2020 • Sustained recovery & growth • Increase trade

• Need to find long term solution to supplement EFSF (e.g. ESM) to prevent the worst case scenario • Situation still uncertain

Source: UBS Analysts 12



US Economy – An Outlook
Approx: 70%

2011 S&P Ratings Downgrade: AAA  AA+

High Unemployment Rate: 9.1%

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

High correlation between US GDP growth and largest EU economies

Weakening Consumer Spending

BRIC Economies – An Outlook Brazil
Commodity-driven with Inflation concerns

Resource-rich but hampered by centralised control

Potentially challenged by poor infrastructure

Investor’s choice but watch out for Shadow Economy




In-House Current Market Overview
Macro Trends Timing and identifying both long term and short term trends is crucial to balance development and recovery in various markets
Long Term:
Global Equity has taken a beating in early Aug.

Refuge to safe haven Assets:
US Treasuries, UK Gilts, German Bunds has benefitted from flight to quality

Short Term:
Corporate earnings better than expected

High Yield comes at a Price: Equity Fixed Income
Recent 50% haircut

Macro-economic concerns will undermine valuation.

Popular Choices:
REITs Funds with exposure to commodities Funds with EM themes

Alternative Investment


Issues of Concern:
Euro fundamental fragility Intervention for Yen and CHF

Emerging markets remain pick for long term (KRW/TWD/MYR/THB)


BRIC Economies – A Chinese Focus
IMF Cut’s China’s Growth Forecast

Source: IMF, Sep 2011

Inflation concerns

Tighten Monetary Policy

Cuts Growth Forecast

Rapid Urbanization

Infrastructure spending 16



Investment Approach – Economist Perspective


EM Focus


Inflation: • Inflation in emerging economies has outperformed developed markets


Investment Approach – Economist Perspective


EM Focus


Focus on Emerging Markets: • Generally high growth potential in emerging markets (especially in China) • Medium outperformance in equities, currencies and debt




Investment Approach – Economist Perspective


EM Focus


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