Value Tree Analysis

665 words - 3 pages

Value tree paper
Decision analysis assists in the process of structural thinking about decisions and the development of supportive subjective judgments that form a basis for good decisions. There are four main phases involved in the process of decision analysis that is the problem structuring, preference elicitation, recommendation decision and sensitivity analysis.

Under the problem structuring phase several issues need to be identified and defined. The first task to be carried out involves context decision definition. For example, this is the stage of identifying a college. After defining the problem, the objectives or objective is defined. For example, to come up with the decision of ...view middle of the document...

Despite the fact that measuring preferences is not straight forward, the decision maker may give conflicting statements about her preferences. Several methods are followed so as to come up with the best possible estimate. I preferred college B TO A therefore the notation B>A. this is because the college was nearer to my place of residence compared to college A and also college B offered the course I needed to study at affordable prices unlike college A (Bor-Yuan 2011).

Under the phase of sensitivity analysis, an exploration of how changes in the model designed above would influence the decision recommendation is done. For example, if a small change was made in one of the aspects of the model, would the recommended decision change? This phase assisted me in recognizing the aspects that I should concentrate on since my decision on the college to attend are sensitive to those aspects. For instance, I considered if my decision on the college to attend would change if college A reduced the course prices by ten percent. My...

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