World Applied Sciences Journal 31 (6): 1160-1167, 2014 ISSN 1818-4952 © IDOSI Publications, 2014 DOI: 10.5829/idosi.wasj.2014.31.06.4
Impact of Conflict on Tourist Flow and Spatial Distribution of Tourists in Kashmir Valley
Shamim Ahmad Shah and Muzafar AhmadWani Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006, India Research Scholar, Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Kashmir, Srinagar190006, India
Abstract: Conflict and instability in Jammu and Kashmir have been a major hindrance to its development and progress levels. Tourism is identified as the engine of growth and Development of Jammu and Kashmir economy in ...view middle of the document...
Key words: Kashmir Valley Instability Destination Tourist Arrivals Tourism
INTRODUCTION Perceptions of political instability and safety are a prerequisite for tourist visitation. Violent protests, social unrest, civil war, terrorist actions, the perceived violations of humanrights, or even the mere threat of these activities can all serve to cause tourists to alter theirtravel behavior . Tourism has emerged as one of the chief industries in the world economy over the last Decade. Its total contribution comprised 9% of global GDP (US $6.6 trillion) and generated over 260 million jobs, 1 in 11 i.e. 10% of new job creation in the world’s total job market. Tourism industry showed faster growth than other notable industries such as manufacturing, financial services and retail . Tourism is one of the more sensitive industries, vulnerable to perceived political instability, lack of safety and other uncertainties . Tourism is highly susceptible
to external shocks such as natural disasters, political instability and terrorism . Destinations are less appealing to tourists if they are insecure or likely to experience serious conflict  war, political unrest, terrorism, violations of human rights or heavy crime – regardless of the abundance of scenic or cultural attractions [6-8]. Political instability related with tourism can have very negative effects on tourism destinations which will decline the number of tourists who visit the destinations and also will bring suffering to the tourism industry. The effects from political instability such as armed attacks, civil wars, bombings, attacks on tourists, wars, change in government, threat of war with another country, which will deter or obstruct the image of the destination through media reporting and government policies and even word of mouth reporting .
Shamim Ahmad Shah, Department of Geography and Regional Development, University of Kashmir, Srinagar,190006.
World Appl. Sci. J., 31 (6): 1160-1167, 2014
The hypothesis that political violence deters tourism is mainly based on case study evidence and a few quantitative studies confined to a small sample of countries. Two estimation techniques-a fixed-effects panel estimator with contemporaneous effects only and a dynamic generalized method of moment’s estimator-are used to test the impact of various forms of political violence on tourism. Both models show strong evidence that human rights violations, conflict and other politically motivated violent events negatively affect tourist arrivals. In a dynamic model, even if autocratic regimes do not resort to violence, they have lower numbers of tourist arrivals than more democratic regimes. Results also show evidence for intra-regional, negative spillover and crossregional substitution effects. Violent protests, social unrest, civil war, terrorist actions, the perceived violations of human rights, or even the mere threat of these activities can all...