Teoria De Juegos Essay

1521 words - 7 pages

Estrategias de Negociación y Teoría de Juegos. La Teoría de Juegos es la teoría del comportamiento racional aplicada a problemas interactivos de decisión que se encarga de estudiar el comportamiento de los individuos en situaciones estratégicas, en donde se realiza un análisis matemático orientado a predecir cuál será el resultado cierto o el resultado más probable a una problemática entre dos individuos. Cabe destacar que dicha teoría fue diseñada y elaborada por el matemático John Von Neumann y el economista Oskar Morgenstern en 1939, con el fin de realizar análisis económico de ciertos procesos de negociación. En un “juego” (o en una situación de negociación), varios agentes intentan ...view middle of the document...

Un juego es un proceso en que dos o más personas toman decisiones y acciones, según una estructura establecida, que se establece en un conjunto de reglas (ya sean formales o informales), a fines de obtener un beneficio. Cada combinación de decisiones y acciones determina una situación particular, y, dado que las decisiones y acciones de los agentes involucrados (llamados los jugadores) pueden ser combinadas de numerosas formas, las situaciones generadas también serán numerosas y su magnitud será igual a las de las combinaciones de decisiones y acciones de los agentes. El conjunto total de situaciones posibles es el cuadro situacional del juego. Por esta razón, se dice que cada situación (es decir, cada punto del cuadro situacional) genera una combinación de premios determinada. El premio (o resultado) que le da a un jugador una situación particular puede ser comparado con los premios que le ofrecen las otras situaciones. De igual forma, en la Teoría de Juegos, un concepto importante es el de pago, ya que cada situación particular ofrece una combinación de premios, de la manera siguiente: si se trata de dos jugadores, la situación ofrece un premio para el primero y otro para el segundo. Si se trata de tres jugadores, la situación genera un premio para cada jugador. A cada premio se le llama pago. La Teoría de Juegos nos ayuda a analizar juegos en los que dos o más personas compiten por un único premio o pago (juegos de suma cero de los pagos) y juegos en los que se compite por premios que pueden ser obtenidos simultáneamente (juegos de suma no-cero). La Teoría de Juegos enseña que la interacción de los jugadores generará una situación (es) más probable. A esta situación o conjunto de situaciones se les llamará la solución del juego. La solución del juego se sustenta en que la conducta de cada jugador llega a engancharse con la de los otros, derivando todo esto en situaciones más fuertes que otras. Las situaciones más fuertes son las que serán producidas con la mayor probabilidad, y debido a esto es que se considera que la solución o desenlace del problema del juego corresponde a la situación o situaciones más fuertes, que son a su vez las más probables. Luego sigue lo que algunos autores consideran el corazón de los beneficios ofrecidos por la Teoría de Juegos. El análisis de un juego lleva muchas veces a que se determine cuál va a ser el punto final de solución de dicho juego. A este

resultado se le denominará resultado inminente o fatal del juego. No obstante, en la realidad existen muchos juegos cuyo final es imposible de determinar, incluso con la ayuda de la Teoría de Juegos, estos juegos no tienen resultados inminentes, o, si es que los tienen, éstos no son previsibles y la Teoría de Juegos no puede predecirlos. Esta situación se evidencia en el caso de un juego de ajedrez, el cual es un juego de suma cero, ya que todo lo que la Teoría de Juegos nos puede decir acerca de este juego es que uno de los dos jugadores ganará y el otro...

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