Supply Chain Planning And Control Essay

3010 words - 13 pages

University of Hull |
Supply Chain Planning and Control-Individual assignment: Pony Group |
4/13/2013 |

Model leader: Riccardo Mogre
Student number: 201100320
Word count: 2,662


1. Introduction 2

2. Section 1: Demand forecast 2
2.1. Moving average 2
2.2. Simple Exponential Smoothing 3
2.3. Holt’s Model 4
2.4. Winter’s Model 5
2.5. Demand forecast for XYZ 8

3. Section 2: Aggregate planning 9
3.1. Aggregate planning Question 1 10
3.2. Aggregate planning Question 2 11

4. Section 4: Pricing and revenue management 12

Appendix 15

1. Introduction
This assignment is based on the market information of Pony ...view middle of the document...

Then according to the formula Lt, , to calculate the level results for period 12, which is displayed in figure 2. And the level for period 12 is the forecast for period 13 (figure 3), therefore, L12 = F13. Then it is easy to solve levels and forecasts for all periods. The next step is to calculate the forecast errors for this technique.
There are three measures to judge the forecast error which includes MAD (Mean absolute deviation), MSE (Mean squared error) and MAPE (Mean absolute percentage error). The calculation formulas are showed as below:
Forecast error:
Absolute Forecast error:
MAD = Sum of deviations / number of forecasts
Squared error:
MSE = Sum of squared errors / number of forecasts
Absolute percentage error:
MAPE = (Sum of absolute percentage errors / number of forecasts)*100%
On the basis of the formulas above, it is easy to calculate the results out, which is showed as figure 4.
MAD = 4,175 MSE = 23,584,490.74 MAPE = 78.51%

3.2. Simple Exponential Smoothing
The exponential smoothing forecasting method modifies the moving average method by placing the greatest weight on the last value in the time series and then progressively smaller weights on the older values, it also uses parameter ‘level’ for the forecast, and uses α to represent the smoothing constant for level. Convert the words to formula will be easier to understand:

α = smoothing constant of level
The initial estimate of level L0 is the average of all historical data:

The forecast for next period is also the level for this period:

According to the formula L0, L0 is the average of demand for all the periods, and the result is came out in figure 5, L0 = 8,523.81. In this paper, we assume α = 0.1, so L1 = 0.1*20,000 + (1-0.1)*8,523.81 = 9,671.42, which is the result for level 1. The forecast for demand is the same as moving average method, the forecast of next period is the level of previous period, just as figure 7 illustrates. Then we can figure out level and forecast for all the periods, in excel is simply drag down the data, and the results will come out. The next step is to estimate forecast error for exponential smoothing method, and the measures are also the same as mentioned in moving average: MAD, MSE and MAPE. On the basis of those formulas in moving average part, the forecast results are easily to figure out:
MAD = 4,987.18 MSE = 32,935,626.85 MAPE = 94.89% (figure 8)

3.3. Holt’s Model
Holt’s model is a trend-corrected exponential smoothing method. It has two parameters for the forecast: level and trend. The initial estimate of level and trend are based on the results by running a linear regression, the formulas are demonstrated as below:
T0 = a
L0 = b
When we do the regression analysis we need to input demand for all periods as dependent variable (Y range) and input periods as independent variable (X range) (figure 9) and the result will be calculated out automatically, which is showed in figure 10, the...

Other Papers Like Supply Chain Planning and Control

Supply Chain And Demand Model Essay

1004 words - 5 pages Learning Team Reflection: Supply Chain and Demand Model ECO/372 Learning Team Reflection: Supply Chain and Demand Model The topic that we are discussing is supply chain and demand model. We have learned many valuable tools over the past four weeks that has lead us to this topic. We learned about historical economic data, economic forecast data, aggregate demand and supply models. Each of these topics has aided us in

Fruits and Vegetables Supply Chain Essay

3443 words - 14 pages An Analysis of the Fruits and Vegetables Supply Chain Abstract Fruits and vegetables provides your body with the essential vitamins and minerals that is needed to maintain your health. Introduction It is no surprise these days that people are trying to live a healthier life. In order to do so one has to alter their diet and add fruits and

Supply Chain Coordination and Bullwhip Effect

2542 words - 11 pages chain due to the misalignment of the goals and plans for the supply chain with those of individual organizations. This results into the incentive obstacles which makes it difficult to monitor the events within the supply chain, and control the approaches adopted by the different participants (Hammer, 2001). Information flow within the supply chain is essential for the complete coordination of the movement of the product from the point of

Economic Geography and Supply Chain Evolvement

4944 words - 20 pages chain management which is using in any kind of businesses. Any businesses should concentrate in the following five areas: Production: What product and in which quantity they should produce. The quality control, equipment maintenance, workload balancing should be in action. Inventory: To avoid the uncertainty in supply chain companies should be careful about the inventory. To what extent the stock level should be kept in every stages of inventory

Supply Chain in Oil and Gas

4244 words - 17 pages their logistics management system design in a way to convey the correct quantity of any of the materials or gases down the chain, through adequately accurate forecasting, scheduling, and inventory control (Coyle, et al (2013). The oil and gas industry is a highly multifaceted industry, and its vertical supply chain structure poses extraordinary challenges. Due to its inherently dangerous and hazardous nature, the movement of the goods, oils

International Purchasing and Supply Chain Management

4020 words - 17 pages teams: - Multifunctional cooperation within large firms like TNCs can result in efficient sourcing strategies. When considering the purchasing factor in supply chain management, sourcing strategy usually emphasises on purchase price. The combination of 4 key areas: purchasing, manufacturing, engineering, and planning have been developed to formulate a strategy in order to identify the key elements of total cost. * Ensure appropriate

Operations and Supply Chain Management Concepts/Tools

2451 words - 10 pages and the paper puts across that the company can use the concept of aligning the demand planning across the supply chain. This has been seen to encourage focus of the company on the market demand and hence leading to the improvement of the market position. Background Information This report is based on B.F. Goodrich Corporation whose origin is based back to the time of Benjamin Franklin Goodrich who had followed an

Planing and Controlling the Supply Chain

1340 words - 6 pages Planning and Controlling the Supply Chain ISCOM 471 December 24, 2012 Planning and Controlling the Supply Chain Within the many different organizations in todays business world there are some key factors that will establish the profitability, growth, and longevity of a company. Some of the things we will discuss will be that of how my chosen corporation American Express applies some of the forecasting techniques to better develop the

Lush Cosmetics Supply Chain And Retail Management

1623 words - 7 pages . II. Operations and Supply Chain Strategies Business elements that define a business include structural and infrastructural elements. Structural elements being defined as tangible resources, businesses, equipment and information technology just to name a few. Infrastructural elements are intangible resources such as people, policies and organizational structure. These elements are crucial to ensure a business will run properly, the elements

Customer-Facing Supply Chain Practices -- the Impact of Demand and Distribution Management on Supply Chain Success

1416 words - 6 pages against the capabilities of the supply chain,” demand management (DeM) is becoming more and more popular in the operations management field; however, DeM has not been comprehensively analyzed in terms of supply chain performance. Moreover, DeM is more than the traditional demand forecasting; the field of DeM has been expanded to include customer and product segmentation and sales and operations planning, (p 269). The authors stated their hypotheses

Critical and Creative Thinking in Operations and Supply Chain Management

1539 words - 7 pages Yashashree Kulkarni Operations & Supply chain Mgmt Date; June 21 Critical and Creative Thinking in Operations And Supply Chain Management The reality of the 21st century is the presence of the VUCA environment that is , volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. This highly dynamic business world, requires the business leaders to think both critically & creatively in order to be successful in their area of expertise. Leaders are expected to

Related Essays

Supply Chain And Rfid Essay

1851 words - 8 pages technologies like Radio Frequency Identification Information (RFID) along with ERP and centralized databases plays a dominant role in collaborating and integrating the entire supply chain process. Main uses of RFID technology are reduction in time taken to reorder shipments, reduction of tracking time, improving tracking of pallets, items, reduction of shrinkage and provide better planning, control and optimization of inventory and assets (Coltman, Gadh

Planning And Control Essay

1675 words - 7 pages Table of Contents1. Introduction. 22. Definition of planning and control. 33. Types of planning. 34. SWOT analysis. 45. Importance of control. 56. Bibliography 6Introduction.One of the most crucial activities that take place during project management is planning. Projects are destined to fail if adequate attention is not given to planning the scope, the timing of activities, and project costs."A good plan is like a road map: it shows the final

Planning And Control Essay

1119 words - 5 pages Air traffic control: a world-class juggling act case exercise Air traffic controllers have one of the most stressful jobs in the world. They are responsible for the lives of thousands of passengers who fly every day in and out of the worlds airports. Over the last 15 years, the number of planes in the sky has doubled, leading to congestion at many airports and putting air traffic controllers under increasing pressure. The

Logistics And Supply Chain Management Essay

1191 words - 5 pages utilized are different. Firstly, according to Murphy & Wood (2008), CSCMP states that the supply chain management includes all activities about planning and management, such as procurement and sourcing, conservation and all logistics management activities. It is vital to notice that it also collaborates and coordinates with channel partners, such as suppliers, third-party service providers and customers. However, it indicates that logistics is that a