Russia and the frozen conflicts
in post-soviet states
What are the real nature and interest of frozen conflicts for Russia ? Symptome of the
transition to a post-imperial status or a real strategic policy for Russia to maintain her
influence waiting better days ?
I ) Russiaʼs transition as traditional actor in a strategic
A) SU defeat , Exit from the Empire, the wrong answer of the CIS
The Soviet Union, strictly composed by 15 republics and some other satellites like
the Baltic States, collapsed in 1991 and was divided into different States. The former
Russian Empire, built since Peter the Great to the West,has been lost : Russia has in 1991
the borders of 1687.
Russianʼs ...view middle of the document...
This CIS was
a kind of Russian Commonwealth and this organization was supposed to be Russian
considered as South America was the “BASSE COUR” of the US since the Monroe
Doctrine. This Russian sphere of influence was called in 1992 : “near abroad” : ближние
This political union was apparently a safe solution which permits to have a soft
transition without any civil war like in the Balkans. It was one of the most important thread
when we know as only one exemple that 25 millions of Russian are outside of the New
Russia of 1991... Ethnic Cleaning war, secession, wars between communities were the
darkmare of all the leaders of the region and the CIS gave the possibility to have a
Focus on case study : Moldavia & Transnistria.
Russiaʼs first Frozen Conflicts was in Moldavia and itʼs quite interesting to notice
that the conflict began when Moldavia decided to get her complete independance from
Russia and not to join the CIS and moreover to join Roumania in mid-term time... This
means for Russia the complete lost of influence on this country and this would have a
great defeat for Kremlin to loose a strategic basis.
=> With Moldavia, Russia surrounds Ukraine and itʼs a thread for the independance
of this uncertain State.
=> Moldavia is at the end of the Danube, one of the most important river in Europe
=>Moldavia gives access to a hot sea and is in the earth of Europe.
If we very oftenly hear the data of 60% of Russian Minorities in Moldavia, we must
be very carefull because this number hide in reality many realities : it adds russians and
ukraine “ethnics”and focus on russian-speaking people.Moldavia has been part of a
province of the Russian Empire since 3 centuries... The real number of Russia ethnic
people is 27% ; itʼs important but not a majority. When in 1990, Moldavia is turning to the
West (latin alphabet, orthodox Patriarcat to Bucarest and not Moscow...),Russians and
Ukrainians of Moldavia refuse to agree and wanted to create an independant State :
Moldavian Republic ofTransnistria. This State in on the border of Ukraine and is the real
economical earth of the countries : Moscow built there most part of industries and the
region represents 40% of the GDP of the Country. Moldavia is one of the poorest State of
Europe and it was quite impossible for Chisinau ( the official capital) to recognize the loose
of such territory... Chisinau tried to make war to Transnistria but a Russian Army based
there leaded by Aleksandr Lebed defeated the Moldavian army...A cease of fire has been
declared between Moldavia and this Unidentified Political Object which is Transnistria
( UPO )but no solution has been found since the war in 1992... In 2001, a pro-Russian
communist, Vladimir Voronine, has been elected and recognized many points wanted by
Moscow like the difference between Romanian and Moldavian and in 2003, a political
agreement has been very close to be signed...