This website uses cookies to ensure you have the best experience. Learn more

Role Of Scenarios In Strategic Forecasting

3159 words - 13 pages

The role of scenarios in strategic foresight”
Article Summary
In the context of the global financial crisis and the turbulence that this has brought to the world economy and therefore to organisations, the article “The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” by Gill Ringland published in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social change volume 77 (9) aims to persuade the reader on the need for strategic foresight over the next decade and what role scenarios can play within strategy foresight activities in organisations (Ringland, 2010). The author predicts that organisations in the west will experience a period of great change and that they are mostly ill-prepared to deal with the ...view middle of the document...

This view needs to encompass the nature of the organisation along with values, market awareness and assets. An organisation that is successful in the development of these processes is known as a “PS-RO – a purposeful, self-renewing organisation” (Ringland, 2010).
A ‘PS-RO’ organisation has a developed plan for cost reduction, competitiveness and change using well developed qualities of insight, values, narrative, option generation as well as people and processes.
Scenarios are one way to develop strategic foresight as they provide analysis, communication and education to show the possibilities before the company, meaning ideas can be explored and can act as a catalyst for improvement and change. Scenarios provide intelligence, new options and debate up to the point of decision. The author stresses that scenarios are not forecasts, but possible futures that lie ahead.
Ringland suggests that scenarios can have a key role in the development of strategic foresight as mental models and setting the context for futures thinking (Ringland, 2010).
The author describes that scenarios as mental models can assist in strategic foresight by helping to understand complex systems, allowing for debate and use as a prompt for senior management discussions. These can also shape and create images external to the organisation and by focusing on the future they can provide a set of potential worlds which can be used to explore options and drive innovation.
Ringland asserts that scenario methodology can set the context for thinking about the future which can lead to inputs in the actual development of strategic plans. The author discusses three business case studies on the use of scenario methodology. The author concludes that organisations need strategic foresight in order to survive and in the process of developing scenarios, companies can reap the benefits of new ideas, innovation and a change in culture and opportunities.

Article Discussion and Analysis
In order to survive and renew organisations must detect the weak signals of looming opportunities and threats as early as possible and try to integrate these into strategic planning. It makes sense that organisations don’t focus and look for a single vision of the future that matches their expectations, but instead try to acquire multiple views of the future which depict various opportunities or even threats (Varum & Melo, 2010).
Traditional strategic planning and forecasting techniques lean towards inflexibility and largely fail to predict significant changes in markets or industries, especially in very dynamic business environments. The traditional planning process is by in large greeted with groans as it tends to focus on the plan itself. It is mechanical and the emphasis is not on the thinking and exploration of the future, but rather on the now or the very short term, whereas focus should be on building strategic thinking capacity. Anecdotally traditional plans focus on the forecasting...

Other Papers Like Role Of Scenarios In Strategic Forecasting

Role of Women in Society Essay

1148 words - 5 pages Women Role in Society Essay Women and rural development Women rarely have access to the resources that would make their work more productive and ease their heavy workload. Ultimately, it is not just women who are held back, but also their families, their communities and local economies. Rural women have many roles, and they have responsibilities and knowledge that differ from those of men. As farmers, they plant, weed and harvest food

Role Of Technology In Curriculum Essay

1318 words - 6 pages ------------------------------------------------- The role of technology in delivering the curriculum — Presentation Transcript * 1. The Role of Technology in Delivering the Curriculum * 2. Types of instructional media/technology Non-projected Media Projected MediaReal objects Overhead transparenciesModels Opaque projectionField trips SlidesKits FilmstripsPrinted materials (books, Films worksheets) Video, VCD, DVDVisuals (drawings

Role of Women in Ww2

980 words - 4 pages Role of Women in WW2 The role of women changed dramatically during and after World War 2 (WW2). Initially women would do the housework and look after the children. During the war, women did not only have to take care of the house, they slowly started becoming popular in the working industry. After the war, women were able to have more power and were considered more than just a pretty face. Topic sentence: Before the war, women had very

Role of Media in Pakistan

3258 words - 14 pages influential he is, is accountable before law. Corruption is unheard of in a country where good governance prevails. Not only government officials but also common citizens are aware of their duties and play their role sincerely. In such cooperative environment, economy boosts and investment increases leading to the prosperity of the country. In this way good governance helps to reap the fruits of globalization. Governance is defined as the manner

Role Of Communication In Organisation

3458 words - 14 pages provide useful information’s for events to come, in the form of grapevine. Advantage of grapevine or informal communication: The advantages of informal communication are given below: 1. Interpret: The information is given by the top level management under the formal system. It is easy for the employees to take the explanation by informal system. So this system plays a vital role to complete the work properly. 2. Present grievance: Under

Role of Gis in Power Transmission

4015 words - 17 pages A PROJECT REPORT ON ROLE OF GIS IN POWER TRANSMISSION CASE STUDY OF THE KENYA ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION COMPANY, BY David M. Kariuki To Central Institute of Rural Electrification International training program on upgrades of power utilities management using it/automated solutions. 29-10-2012 to 23-11-2012 CONTENTS CONTENTS...................................................................................... i 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Role of Hr Managment in Tourism

825 words - 4 pages of business goals. Other characteristics include long-term planning horizons, employee development, and teamwork. The role of Human Resource management has been changing rapidly over time. Ulrich (1997:79) outlined the perceived future roles of Human Resource managers in order to add value to organisations. These roles are: Strategic partner, Administrative expert, Employee champion, and Change agent. Some of the challenges that

Role of a Manger in a Mnc

801 words - 4 pages 1. Is the role of the head office a prerequisite for business strategy success for multinational banks (corporations) in cross-market integration? The Head Office is in fact a strong component and for sure a prerequisite for success in business strategy of MNCs in cross-market integration. The head offices are the heart of a corporation and due to that it is the place where all business activities are centralized. The centralization is needed

Role of Intelligence in India’s Security

5448 words - 22 pages sensitive information, officials in the hierarchy can be accorded a level of clearance to enable use with the necessary safeguards. India is steadily building capabilities to take care of its security concerns largely on its own, but some concerns have international dimensions. In this, diplomacy and strategic partnerships would play an important role, but intelligence cooperation with major powers and countries is also required, particularly

Role Of Media In Future War

4135 words - 17 pages Brzezinski has used the word 'Technetronic' to describe this new age in which communication will play a greater intelligence role. According to him, the postindustrial society is becoming a technetronic society which is shaped culturally, psychologically, socially and economically by the impact of technology and electronic particularly in the area of computers and communication . So, the mass media should not only be seen as a driving force behind

Role Of Ict In Retail Sector

4908 words - 20 pages The role of ICT in Retail sector India is on the brink of becoming an economic power house ready to unleash its largely untapped potential for those who willing to take right steps forward. Over the last few years, retail has become one of the fastest growing sectors in the Indian economy. ICT has changed modern business practice, making collaborative supply chain management possible.The paper evaluates the role of ICT in the operations of

Related Essays

The Role Of Ceo In The Strategic Planning System In Nigerian Banks

5171 words - 21 pages THE ROLE OF CEO IN THE STRATEGIC PLANNING SYSTEM IN NIGERIAN BANKS BY DR. (MRS.) S. L. ADEYEMI DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION UNIVERSITY OF ILORIN ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to analyze the CEO’s strategic role in the strategic planning system in the Nigerian banking industry. 69 Chief bank planners were selected for the study from banks that are generally considered to be at the leading edge of bank strategic

System Dynamics In Business Forecasting: A Case Study Of The Commercial Jet Aircraft Industry

5324 words - 22 pages , forecasting by the manufacturers for capacity expansion was not included dynamically in the original version of the model (it was later added for the work done for the parts supplier). Rather, manufacturing capacity was input exogenously as a means of testing alternative scenarios (“What if other manufacturers expand more, or less, aggressively?”), and options for our client (“How much capacity should we add?” “When, and in what sizes?”). The model

Strategic Use Of Dialogue In Euripides' Medea

1435 words - 6 pages Strategic Use of Dialogue in Euripides' Medea Euripides employs the technique of dialogue between two solo actors on stage throughout Medea to dramatize the core values underlying these conversations. In particular, through the conversations that Medea holds with three different males, she shows herself to be a person of great intellect. Females were rarely valued for their intelligence because the Athenians had a "complacent pride in

Role Of Business In Society Essay

771 words - 4 pages ROLE OF LAW IN BUSINESS AND SOCIETY ROLE OF LAW IN BUSINESS AND SOCIETY LAW/421 Abstract The functions of law in society and role of law in business, differ in many ways, primarily in the area of punishment. Criminal laws relating to society and laws that govern business and the enforcement of these laws are not only based