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Project Of Hongkong Disney Essay

3190 words - 13 pages

香港迪士尼主题乐园项目投资分析

工程经济学案例
香港迪士尼主题乐园项目投资分析
案例讨论问题:
(1)案例回顾和总结(可以参考其它资料) 。 (2)哪些因素会影响该项目的投资决策? (3)根据案例提供的数据,采用合理的基准折现率(如 10%)计算迪士尼 公司的香港迪士尼主题乐园投资项目的 NPV。
1998 年,迪士尼公司董事长兼首席执行官迈克尔·艾斯纳先生结束了他的中国之旅回 到美国。 看到麦当劳在世界第一人口大国取得的成功, 艾斯纳先生深信米老鼠也会受到中国 人的热情追捧。但是,迪士尼公司吸取了巴黎迪士尼的教训,行动十分谨慎,对这一海外主 题乐园投资斟酌了七年时间之后,仍然在对这一投资进行深入的财务分析。

一、迪士尼公司及其主题乐园
迪士尼公司是一家全球性娱乐公司,业务涉及五大领域:媒体网络、影视娱乐、主题乐 园、迪士尼消费产品以及网络直销。公司在世界各地现有超过 120,000 名雇员。 尽管迪士尼公司是地位仅次于时代华纳公司的世界第二大传媒公司, 它还是遭受了一系 列的业绩下滑的打击, 除了迪士尼乐园外其他各个事业部都遭受了不同程度的业绩下挫: 从 1998 年截止至 1999 年 9 月 30 日,迪士尼公司净利润下降了 30%至 13 亿美元。但主题乐园 却是一枝独秀,为迪士尼提供了最稳定的增长源。1999 年,该业务利润增长 12%,达到 14 亿美元,而收入增长 10%达到 61 亿美元。 摆在公司决策层的当务之急是如何尽快地将公司带出这样的不利境地, 不断提供稳定增 长现金流的迪士尼乐园自然成为高层首选的突破口。 ...view middle of the document...

1%,到了 1999 年第二季度才升到 0.7%。 虽然旅游业只占 1998 年至 1999 年经济的 4%左右,但是香港政府希望有更多的旅游产品, 需要一个游览景点以振兴处于颓势的旅游业,迪士尼乐园是一个可能的选择。 香港拥有一座位于赤腊角的大型国际机场以及由公路、 铁路、 隧道与桥梁组成的四通八 达的交通网。 大屿山东北的竹篙湾临海地段是一个适合建迪士尼主题乐园的地点 (位处香港 国际机场交通必经之路, 由新机场前往只需 10 分钟) 在那里可以无干扰或不产生纠纷地进 , 行土地开发使用。 中国大陆、台湾、南亚及东南亚、日本和美国是香港的主要游客源。中国大陆游客的增 长潜力是吸引迪士尼来到香港的主要原因之一。 迪士尼公司与香港政府都相信拟建的迪士尼 乐园的成功取决于大陆游客人数,尤其是珠江三角地区的居民。

三、可行性研究
为了评估香港迪士尼乐园的财务可行性, 迪士尼公司基于其国际主题乐园的经验以及香 港的经营环境,设定了一套假设,评估拟建主题乐园的财务效果。

(一)新主题乐园的规模
香港政府说服迪士尼作为股权投资者加入。 迪士尼乐园将分两期建设。 一期工程包括一 座迪士尼主题乐园和两到三家迪士尼主题度假酒店。主题度假酒店共有 2100 间客房。除了 主题乐园和酒店,还有 28000 平方米的集零售、餐饮和娱乐于一体的综合建筑。二期工程将 包括第二座迪士尼主题乐园、附属酒店以及扩建零售、餐饮与娱乐综合设施。据估计,一期 工程的总投资(不包括地价)将达 141 亿港元。

(二)入园率预测
预测基于香港政府采用的评估方法和其他关于人口及游客增长率的历史资料。 在香港与 迪士尼规模最为接近的比照是海洋乐园和沙田马场。具体数据参见表 1。

(三)收入预测
通过谈判,迪士尼公司与香港政府就以下条款达成一致:
2

香港迪士尼主题乐园项目投资分析 特许权费:商品、食品与饮料以及酒店总收入的 5%;门票收入的 10%; 基本管理费:总收入的 2%; 变动管理费:EBITDA 1 的 2-8%。 如果迪士尼与香港政府成立合资公司, 还可以从迪士尼乐园的经营利润中按比例分配红 利。 本地居民在主题乐园的消费估计每人 680 港元。这个数字包括前往主题乐园的交通费, 在主题乐园的消费,以及在相关零售店、餐饮及娱乐设施的消费。每人的门票费用将在 250 至 300 港元范围内。 收入预测等详细数据参见表 2。

(四)投资与成本预测
香港迪士尼乐园项目一期的主要投资与成本构成包括下列内容: 竹篙湾土地开发与基础设施建设费用:土地平整和基础设施建设费用将达 136 亿 港元。基础设施建设费不会由拟设立的合资公司承担。根据土地平整费用,估计 要向迪士尼乐园项目第一期收取 40 亿港元的地价。 地价代表填海开拓和土地平整 的预计费用。根据迪士尼的预测,主题乐园将不会有足够的盈利来支付地价。因 此,在与香港政府的谈判过程中,迪士尼讨价还价,以期免费获得土地。 建设地面建筑及设施的费用:估计约为 105 亿港元。 主题乐园的营业费用:可以参照巴黎迪士尼乐园以及东京迪士尼乐园进行估计。 投资与成本预测等数据参加表 3 和表 4。

(五)风险评估
迪士尼公司需要考虑许多风险因素以求与香港政府达成最佳的交易: 未来在中国大陆再建一个迪士尼乐园或者香港再建一个类似主题乐园,对香港迪 士尼乐园的冲击; 游客消费额的不确定性,尤其是那些来自中国大陆的游客,他们与来自其他国家 的游客相比,一般在港花费最少; 成本超支、形成巨额债务负担的可能性,合资公司承担项目债务的能力; 主题乐园产生的现金流的时间结构安排; 主题乐园是否有能力吸引足够的香港本地及外来的游客; 如果主题乐园盈利欠佳,迪士尼是否能全身而退; 中国大陆、香港以及其他地区,例如台湾的政治稳定性。

四、谈判
当迪士尼乐园项目仍处在可行性阶段, 就有许多来自香港民间对该项目异议和质疑的声 音。关于香港政府的高股权投资的传言已遍布该地区。香港有人认为,迪士尼公司想利用政 府对发展旅游业的迫切心情以顺利兴建迪士尼主题乐园。 但是香港政府在谈判中讨价还价的能力并非如民众所想象的那么差。 虽然香港政府准备 持有主题乐园的多数股权,但它不愿在迪士尼要求的一些条款上让步。这些条款包括,给予 税收优惠和税收补助。政府还以“政治上不能接受”以及可能造成“太多不利的经济影响” 为由,拒绝了迪士尼提出的免费取得土地的要求。 双方都努力寻求解决僵局的办法。 对迪士尼的挑战是, 假定在无法从香港政府方面获得 补助的情况下, 该项目的财务可行性如何?可从香港政府那寻求到什么优惠?表 5 给出了香 港资本市场和通货膨胀的数据,这可以用于财务分析。

1

EBITDA:Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization,即息税折旧摊销前利润,是扣除利 息、所得税、折旧、摊销之前的利润。计算公式为 EBITDA=净利润+所得税+利息+折旧+摊销。 3

香港迪士尼主题乐园项目投资分析

表1
代号 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2~4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 5 年份 Year 本地居民 Local residents 香港人口 Population in HK 市场渗透率 Market penetration rate 每位游客入园次数 Visits-per-guest ratio 每年入园人次 Annual attendance 游客总数 Total tourists 非商务游客 Base tourists(non-business) 市场渗透率 Maket penetration rate 每位游客入园次数 Visits-per-guest ratio 每年入园人次 Annual attendance 商务游客 Business tourists 市场渗透率 Market penetration rate 每位游客入园次数 Visits-per-guest ratio 每年入园人次 Annual attendance 羡名而来的游客 Induced tourists 市场渗透率 Market penetration rate 每位游客入园次数 Visits-per-guest ratio 每年入园人次 Annual attendance 年入园人次总数 Total annual attendance 7,524,731 19% 1.35 1,930,094 14,898,671 10,429,070 15.65% 1.17 1,909,615 4,469,601 4.00% 1 178,784 1,698,448 100% 1.15 1,953,215 5,971,708 2005

香港迪士尼主题乐园游客预计
2006 2007 7,782,747 19.42% 1.35 2,040,403 16,892,099 11,824,469 15.65% 1.17...

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