Assignment 1: Predictive Policing
CIS 500 Information Systems for Decision Making
Instructor: Dr. Constance D. Blanson
Date: January 19th, 2014
Written By: Shawn Jesse Ellerby –MSIS Graduate Student
Law enforcement is one of America’s oldest profession that upholds the law and provides peace to the community dating back to 1630. According to the National Law Enforcement Museum web site it states that. “In 1833, Philadelphia organized an independent, 24-hour police force. In 1838, the Boston Police force was established, with a day police and night watch working independently. New York City followed suit in 1844, becoming the New York City Police Department in ...view middle of the document...
The application and implantation of predictive policing has been successful in many departments across the United States. Most departments that focus on, fund, and deploy predictive policing are more of the sheriff and police departments in rural areas that don’t have a large group of personnel, so instead they will use the predictive policing technology to pull resources to patrol the areas that have the highest crime rate. The Federal Bureau of Investigation often spends times on analyzing crime trends and decimates it out to other departments, but in an article published by the FBI it states, “The Santa Cruz Police Department has 94 sworn officers and serves a population of 60,000. A university, amusement park, and beach push the seasonal population to 150,000. Department personnel contacted a Santa Clara University professor to apply the algorithm, hoping that leveraging technology would improve their efforts. The police chief indicated that the department could not hire more officers. He felt that the program could allocate dwindling resources more efficiently.
Santa Cruz police envisioned deploying officers by shift to the most targeted locations in the city. The predictive policing model helped to alert officers to targeted locations in real time, a significant improvement over traditional tactics.” (Zach Friend, 2013). On the downside of the idea of predictive policing is that some departments don’t have the funding to hire a crime analyst to constantly monitor the crime trends that happen, so they have to rely on the dedicated law enforcement officers to be at the right place at the right time. In today’s time, technology will fail, but a man won’t so when the predictive policing software has an issue you are going to have to rely on your personnel to heavily patrol the areas that are known to have violent or property crimes.
Other departments such as the New York City Police Department, which as an endless amount of funding for whatever they want, implemented COMPSTAT. In 1994 the NYPD or New York Police Department implemented COMPSTAT, which is stands for Computer Statistics, uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to map the locations of where crimes occur, identify “hotspots”, and map problem areas. COMPSTAT has amassed a wealth of historical crime data. Mathematicians have designed and developed algorithms that run against the historical data to predict future crimes for police departments. With having the four basic principles of information systems in mind (input, processing, output, and feedback), COMPSTAT seems to operate in a manner that a crime analyst will input the current crime trend that is taking place whether it be violent crimes or property crimes. After the information is enter into COMPSTAT, the application will run algorithms. These algorithms are a “culmination of anthropological and criminological behavior research. It uses complex mathematics to estimate crime and predict future hot spots. Researchers based...