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Pets.Com Essay

1158 words - 5 pages

How would you revise the market potential for Hemopure?

The best four-segment solution to the usage problem includes these categories: elective surgery; emergency surgery; in field trauma; and chronic anemia.

Current Usage Change Potential Usage
Trauma (in field) 200,000 *10 2,000,000

Currently only 10% of trauma cases get blood transfusions in the field. With better storage potential and no need for blood typing this could be increased to 100% (a factor of 10!).

This is the potential usage in 1995. In order to project the numbers forward to 2000 (the date of product release), we must estimate population growth. The elderly population (65 and older), which currently ...view middle of the document...

084 325,200
Over 65 200,000 *1.14 228,000

Current Usage Change Potential Usage
Elective Surgery 6,900,000 *.05 345,000

Evaluating the attractiveness of the Biopure offer compared to that of the generic human RBC competitor is essential to appropriately forecasting demand in the elective surgery segment. A simple analysis of the benefits demanded by elective surgery, the benefits provided by human RBC’s, and the benefits provided by Hemopure would lead one to conclude that Hemopure is poorly suited to elective surgery. In particular, donated human blood is:

• Well entrenched and widely-accepted in modern medicine,
• Readily available through a well-established network of blood collection groups
• Relatively inexpensive, at $125-$225 per unit (vs. the proposed $600-$800 for Hemopure)
• Relatively safe, with little chance of infection (e.g., 1 in 5,000,000 chance of AIDS).

Consequently, Hemopure is probably only appropriate for applications where donated blood is not readily available and where the loss of blood is life threatening. Elective surgery certainly does not fall into this category.

Revised estimates of usage for the year 2000 are as follows:

Potential usage (1995) Change Potential Usage (2000)
Under 65 207,000 *1.084 224,388
Over 65 138,000 *1.14 157,320

Current Usage Change Potential Usage
Chronic Anemia 3,200,000 *0 0

Hemopure is ill-suited for chronic anemia applications because of the short half-life, potential for toxicity, and very high price (would you/your HMO want to spend $600-$800 per unit for the rest of you life if you were afflicted with this condition?).

Finally, there are 1 million “borderline” transfusion surgeries each year, where doctors avoid transfusions for fear of disease transmission or negative reaction. Hemopure could eliminate these fears, resulting in an additional potential of 1.5 million units.

Grand total: 4.65 million units

Question 2) Given Baxter and Northfield’s relative strength in the market, to what would you revise the forecast?

Baxter’s Hemassist and Northfield’s PolyHeme would both take market-share when they are introduced. Both of these products are made with human blood, which may prove an advantage. In addition, Baxter’s history of product success may make it a formidable competitor. The best responses to this question account for the relative strength of the competing organizations and offers. Here is a suggested solution:

Biopure’s real competitive advantages are its shelf life and storage requirements. Baxter and Northfield’s products, since they are made with human blood, do not have these advantages. Therefore, while Baxter and Northfield will probably take the emergency and elective surgery segments, Biopure can be expected to win the trauma segment. Our market potential is therefore 2,212,800 units. At $600.00 per unit our market potential is $1.33 billion.

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