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Odd Molly, Finance Essay

1373 words - 6 pages


PM 3


I vår företagsvärdering har vi valt att jämföra följande företag, Odd Molly, Björn Borg, MQ Holding och Kapp Ahl. Företagen är verksamma i branschen sällanköp textil och är noterade på OMX Mid/Small Cap.
Vi inledde analysen med att jämföra Odd Molly med liknande företag i branschen för att se om vi kunde hitta några markanta skillnader som skulle kunna tyda på fel värdering.

Ratio | Odd Molly | Björn Borg | MQ Holding | Kapp Ahl |
P/E-tal | 11,84x | 17,19x | 21,96x | 9,89x |
EV/Sales | 0,95x | 2,55x | 1,35x | 1,14x |
EV/EBITDA | 6,28x | 10,26x | 10,09x | ...view middle of the document...

Det är ett ungt svenskt modeföretag som grundades 2002. De har sedan starten haft en kraftig tillväxt både i Sverige och utomlands. Året 2010 var ett händelserikt år med ett listbyte från First North till NASDAQ OMX Stockholm. Samma år öppnade de upp butiker i Los Angeles och Köpenhamn. Man lanserade även en egen herrkollektion och öppnade även två outletbutiker.

Analys av Inputsvärden
Under början av vår granskningsperiod ökade omsättningstillväxten med över 100 % per år. Det har sin förklaring i att det är ett ungt företag som expanderade som mest de första åren. De två senaste årens tillväxttakt har varit mer rimlig, den har det sista året varit på 8 % och året dessförinnan varit 23 %. Odd Molly har själva ett mål på en omsättningstillväxt på 20 % per år. De anser att de har kunnat hävda sig bra bland sina konkurrenter trots att de är verksamma i en bransch som är utsatt för stark konkurrens. De har haft en snabb organiskt tillväxt och i nuläget bedömer bolaget att de kommer att ha kapacitet att klara av en betydande omsättningsökning. Med ovanstående som utgångspunkt väljer vi att använda oss av en omsättningstillväxt på 20 %.
För att räkna ut ett lämpligt avkastningskrav för Odd Molly, började vi med att beräkna beta-värdet som ska användas i CAPM för uträkning av aktieägarnas avkastningskrav.
Vi jämförde företagets aktieutveckling med OMX under perioden 2008-01-02-2010-01-31. Vi valde att inte ha med 2007 då det var året de noterades, vilket kan medföra att aktien riskerar att inte vara rätt värderad. Då vi endast har tillgång till begränsad historisk aktiekursutveckling för Odd Molly så är vi medvetna om att beta-värdet kan vara något missvisande. Vi räknade fram överavkastningen utifrån den givna perioden och multiplicerade dessa två för att räkna ut kovariansen. Beta-värdet fick vi fram genom att dividera kovariansen med marknadsportföljens varians. Vi har använt oss av riskfri ränta på 3,3 % och riskpremie på 4,5 % (Riskpremien på den svenska aktiemarknaden, mars 2011, PWC) när vi räknar ut avkastningskrav. Vår CAPM beräkning gav en avkastning på 3,8 % på eget kapital, men Odd Molly har de senaste fem åren haft en genomsnittlig avkastning på eget kapital på ca 50%. Därför anser vi att 3,8 % är ett alltför lågt avkastningskrav till aktieägare samtidigt som 50 % är ett väldigt högt krav som kan vara svårt för företaget att leverera framöver. Därför har vi valt en, enligt oss, mer rimlig avkastning på eget kapital på 17 % i vår beräkning av Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). Vi använde oss av en räntekostnad på 7 % för att spegla den åtstramande penningpolitiken. Våra uträkningar resulterade i en WACC på 15 %, vilken vi använde i våra beräkningar.
Företagets rörelsemarginal har under åren 2006-2010 i genomsnitt varit 16 % medan medianen var 14 %, vilket ger ett snitt på 15 %--> lägger oss därför mitt mellan på 15%. de tv VD om företagets mål för denna tillväxt.. ...

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