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Ocean Carrriers Essay

1386 words - 6 pages

242 道Argument 题目的分析

1. Nature’s Way 论断:在Plainsville开店会赚钱。 ·赚钱的前提是收益高出成本,论断没有提供关于在此地开店的成本计算问题 ·那些参加健身活动的人不一定关心饮食健康,所以不必然地成为他们的顾客。 ·就算他们关心饮食健康,那么当地相同商家没有被考虑进去,竞争以及品牌忠实度的问题 ·他们在关心健康的地区赢利的原因没有说,健康也许不是他们的卖点,而是其它的东西结论:论断仅凭一个似是而非的经验和该地的一些表面现象就匆忙做出结论,缺乏说服力。在投资前,该机构应该做充分的市场调查,准确找出自己的优势,并分析当地投资环境、竞争对手、消费习惯等问题。
2. Deerhaven Acres homeowners 论断:统一外观就能提高地价 ·这是他人经验,尽管离得近,但是否适用于该地很可疑。论断没有就两地间在交通、功用以及住户特点等问题比较异同。做出结论显得匆促。 ·他地区地价提高并不一定是因为统一了外观。七年可发生很多变化,交通,商业区,社区内部设施提高了。论断显得片面(undue/one-handed)。 ·地价要提高得有更多人愿意住进来。统一外观抹杀个性,会引人反感。且不论统一的外观能不能得到所有人满意,这种做法本身有强制性。论断危险。结论:论断没有提供两地的异同,以及他地区统一外观后的七年里的变化就匆忙做出决定,必招致起住户的反对。他们应该做更多的调查研究,最主要的是听取住户的意见,以保证最起码不会有人因此而搬出去。
3. law firms in the city of Megalopolis ...view middle of the document...

Jazz club loan, city of Monroe 论断:在Monroe开一家Jazz club会很赚钱。因为该市有很多人喜爱爵士乐,爵士乐迷每年都会有很大笔开销花在与爵士乐相关的事情上,另外该市最近一家Jazz club也很远,所以它们会拥有整个市场。 ·论断很片面,赚钱除了与市场环境有关以外还与公司的经营管理密不可分。论断没有提供任何有关他们管理人员的资料,以及他们对Jazz club营销的任何设想。断然认为有好的市场环境就会赚钱。 ·论断也武断。认为喜欢爵士乐的人就会去Jazz club。而且听爵士乐的方式有很多,比如电台,比如自己在家听CD等等。电台的乐迷和参加聚会的人并不一定成为他们的消费者,而他们每年在爵士乐上的销费更不一定必须包括去Jazz club的费用。 ·论断很仓促。论断认为不叫Jazz club的俱乐部就不放爵士乐,就不是他们的竞争对手。虽然最近一家Jazz club也有65公里远,但也许就在他们旁边就有很多家俱乐部也以爵士乐为主,虽然不叫做Jazz club。另外大多数人去俱乐部的根本原因并不是听音乐,他们用爵士乐做卖点并不一定能在竞争中取胜。结论:他们应该更多地考虑如何经营俱乐部以保证他赚钱,而不能光依赖外部的环境。另外究竟人们去Jazz club的原因是什么,人们花在俱乐部上的钱又会是多少,都还有待进一步调查。
7. Clearview mayoral election 论断:选Ann Green,环境问题肯定能解决,因为他是Good Earth Coalition。论断认为人们没有选另一位政府成员是因为现在的环境太糟糕,污染非常严重。 ·论断太武断。论为选一位环境组织的成员当市长,环境污染问题就能解决。但实际上作为环境组织的成员只能表明他对环境很关注,而政府要解决污染问题,除了关心以外还会有大量具体工作要作。比如协调其他部门,比如对工业生产的了解等等,这些都不是出身就必然能具备的素质。论断没有提供该候选人的这方面资料。 ·论断不公平。说现行政府不关心保护环境,举例说是过去几年工厂的数目加倍,空气污染的程度在上升,而当地医院治疗的呼吸病患者也比以前多了25%。但是论断没有告诉我们新增的工厂是否是污染型产业,这些工厂有没有采取防止污染的措施,没有这种资料我们无法判断这些工厂对于环境污染的影响程度,因为很可能这些工厂是污染少的新兴产业,或是采取了有效措施。而说到空气污染的问题,一方面这是一个全球共同面临的状况,论断没有说明该市与其他相同特征的城市相比,或是与早前的历史相比,这个数字是大是小,从而无法判断,另一方面空气污染并不一定是因为该市自身的问题,因为风向的流动,污染有可能是从其他地方来的。而医院里呼吸病病人增多同样缺乏判断根据,呼吸病发生的原因很多,有天生的,有因为老化的,论断没有说明新增病人的病因是否因为污染引起。 ·论断对另一名候选人也很不公平。就算真像论断所说现行政府不关心环境,就认为他也不关心境。论断没有提供该候选人是否有破坏环境的纪录,是否曾促进一些破坏环境的措施。因为不能排除他也很关心环境保护,只是他的声音被政府其他声音所淹没。结论:论断非常不公平也很武断。他既没有提供候选人在解决环境问题上的成果和能力,也没有提供任何可以证明现行政府以及另一候选人不关心环境的证据。如果要号召选民们同意他的意见,他还需要进一步提供这方面的资料。
8. Omni Inc.Mesa Foods 结论:购买Mesa Foods,并主要生产其畅销产品Diabolique Salsa肯定会让Omni Inc赢利。因为Mesa Foods很有发展潜力,去年的利润增长有20%,而Diabolique Salsa在过去三年里销量也一直增长。另外零食的消费者正好是14--25岁的顾客群,Omni Inc很感兴趣。 ·论断太武断。公司合并(merge)涉及很多问题,比如两家公司的企业文化会不会冲突,Omni Inc对零食产业或是食品行业是不是有优势,涉足零食产业与Omni Inc的其他产业会不会有冲突,另外还有经营管理上的问题等等都有可能会因为合并而产生矛盾。论断单纯以该公司去年20%的利润增长就认为合并后也会给Omni Inc带来同样的前景,非常武断。 ·论断的资料不充分。只说该公司去年一年的利润是20%,但是该公司持续的赢利表现如何,以及是否有证据表明这样的势头在今后也能保持,去年一年20%的利润增长是否是因为非产品销售增长而不是其他金融行为,这些资料论断都没有提供。而其沙拉的销量增长也缺乏说明力,因为该公司是一家地方性公司,沙拉销量好只能说明它非常符合当地人的口味,那么其他地区的人会不会喜欢很有怀疑。光凭论断中简单的描述,我们还不能得出结论说该公司很有发展潜力。 ·论断对于涉足零食产业会为他们赢来目标顾客这点说得很片面。Omni Inc对14--25岁的顾客有兴趣,他们消费大多数的零食,但是该公司的消费群是什么样的,是不是14--25岁?因为很有可能该公司的零食主要由其他年龄段的人消费比如儿童,或是老人,或者其他的。没有证据证明他们是这个年龄段的话,购买该公司就不会符合Omni Inc的兴趣。结论:该论断忽视了合并会给市场经营带来的影响,也没有提供足够有力的证据证明该公司的赢力能力以及是否符合Omni Inc的兴趣。若要成功地说明Omni Inc,他们还需要提供该公司的消费群特征,产品的发展空间,以及该公司具体的营利业绩。
9. Omega University, evaluation 论断:终止学生评论教授,毕业生就能保证找到好工作。因为评价使得学生的分数平均增长 了30%, 使得潜在雇主认为学生的成绩是被夸张的,从而使学生没有另一学校学生找工作成功。 ·论断的前提是评论工程使得学生的分数虚夸,这是非常不公平的。论断没有提供有力证据证明学生的实际水平没有比以前有所提高,或是教师的确在给一些能力不高的学生打高分。因为评论工程的实施本身就是希望教师重视学生的意见,从而提高教学水平,最终提高学生的能力,而分数的提高是一个很重要的参数。而论断武断地将整体提升的分数归结为教师不真诚的行为,对学生和教师都非常不公平。 ·论断没有足够的证据。论断说潜在雇主认为分数虚夸,却没有提供任何这方面的证据,仅仅用显然一词表示,不得不让人认为论者有偏见。而说到没有附近另一所学校被录用率高,论者也没有证据表明这是因分数虚夸而导致,他既没有提供该校学生的分数是否比本校低,也没有证明他们其他的能力是否就不如本校,甚至他没有说该校是不是没有采用评价工程。 ·论断认为这么做学生就能保证找到好工作也非常片面。很多因素都会因响学生是否找到工作,其中很重要的一条是专业是否有市场,另外经济是在萧条期还是繁荣期也会影响到学生找工作。这些都不是学校某项措施就能保证的。结论:论断太过武断,他还应该再提供一些有关潜在雇主对该校学生具体评价,看看是否是因为不信任学生的分数而影响了他们录用学生,他们对学生表现出来的其他能力评价又如何。其实学生在找工作方面遇到了困难,学校应该对其进行面试辅导以增强他们的竞争力,或是根据市场需求调整课程,而不应该简单地停止一项旨在提高教学质量的措施。
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