Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight (Liebl 2010)
Table of contents
1. Summary of the article 3
2. Analysis of the strength and weakness of the argument 5
2.1 Strengths 5
2.2 Weakness 6
3. Implications for the top management 7
4. Conclusion 8
Appendix A 10
Appendix B 11
1. Summary of the article
“In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things” (Musashi 2009).
* This article focuses on trend diagnosis for strategic foresight in its entirety. The author scrutinizes that although trend is ...view middle of the document...
The second is the “resources and competences” of the focal company and third is the “trends and issues in the company’s environment”. However, every option created from one source has to test against the other two.
* The author also points out the paradoxical form of a trend with its linkage function. It underlines “the new” on one hand and diffusion of a trend on the other hand. Apparently the paradox is the driver of innovation and therefore also of trends and their diffusion.
2. Analysis of the strength and weakness of the argument
Trend diagnosis involves a longer-term identification and description of specific changes. The basic assumption is that changes detected in the past will have an impact on the future according to a certain pattern (Pillkahn 2008). The next two sections will discuss more about the relevance of this article, in terms of strength and weakness, in the context of strategic foresight.
The trend diagnosis is one of the key elements in the strategy development and execution. The proper interpretation of trend enables organizations to gain competitive advantages. The author highlights that a trend that is “poorly understood” or incorrectly interpreted must be regarded as strategic disinformation – which may be more dangerous than a trend that has been ignored (Liebl 2010).
The trend diagnosis approach used in this article reinforces scenario building. The scenarios became a useful intermediate stage of the analysis and strategy development towards a preferred future (Ringland 2010). The author mentions that this sort of diagnosis enriches scenario building 1) by avoiding the deceiving notions of the trends as a development in a certain direction; 2) if trends have one or more contexts in common, then a larger cluster of interlinked trends can be built up. This also addresses the demands for focusing on small patterns and soft signals in scenario thinking (Liebl 2010).
I strongly agree with author’s point about the strategy formulation based on entrepreneurial view. The formulation of strategy should start from worlds of customers because the easiest way to measure competitive advantages of an organization is from the customer’s viewpoint. The article “Insight to Foresight: A customer experience point of view” also strengthens the authors point (Krishnan 2014).
There is another point which strengthens this article is the explanation of “the new” with the help of real examples. The new is neither about something which has never been in this world before nor it is nothing new under the sun, it is a non existing combination of a number of different contexts (Liebl 2010). This is absolutely true that organizations have to recognize the right combinations, rather than searching for something very new, in a strategic way to gain competitive advantage.
The trend diagnosis is essential for the strategic foresight but this approach alone will not be sufficient for a...