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Name Your Poisson – A Case Of Fishy Decision Making

830 words - 4 pages

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Write-up
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Name your poisson – a case of fishy decision-making

1) What is the problem at Poisson’s?
Poisson’s is a chain of restaurants that is committed to serving fresh fish to its customers, that is each day the restaurants have to throw out any fish that has not been used.
The restaurants have a fixed number of fish they buy each day (the standing order) and because of the chain’s “fresh” promise, the managers have to guess the best standing order for their restaurant.
Lately the CEO has pointed out that there is a lot of fish wastage. As a study has found that the restaurant ...view middle of the document...

Lastly, the managers currently have full autonomy to make the purchase orders. These individuals may be more inclined to over-purchase to satisfy their customers rather than reduce orders to limit wastage.
3) What do the data suggest about which of the possible causes are the most likely to be responsible for the problem?
Assuming that this year’s data is a reflective of next year’s demand, we can use this data to find an optimal supply to maximize profit.
By analysing the data, we indeed observe that there is a high degree of variability in the daily sales of fish.
LW restaurant
HW restaurant
Average:
385.18
376.20
Standard Deviation :
22.23
55.35
Fish Sales / Day
LW restaurant
HW restaurant
Average:
385.18
376.20
Standard Deviation :
22.23
55.35
Fish Sales / Day
According to the data, we can see that there is a high degree of variability in sales and is likely the primary driver of waste. While the standard deviation of sales (as observed) is really high, we expect the standard deviation of demand to be even higher given that in many cases, sales were capped at the maximum number of fish ordered. See below:

On average the low-waste restaurant sells 385 fish and the high-waste restaurant sells 376 fish, but the standard deviation is 149% higher for the high-waste restaurant. This means that fish sales are much less predictable for this...

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