This website uses cookies to ensure you have the best experience. Learn more

Logistics Essay

4681 words - 19 pages

China’s Economic Growth 1978-2025:
What We Know Today about China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow
Views of the future China vary widely. While some believe that the collapse of China is inevitable, others see the emergence of a new superpower that increasingly poses a threat to the U.S. This paper examines the economic growth prospects of China over the next two decades.
Extrapolating past real GDP growth rates into the future, the size of the Chinese economy surpasses that of the U.S. in purchasing power terms between 2012 and 2015; by 2025, China is likely to be the world's largest economic power by almost any measure. The extrapolations are supported by two types of considerations. ...view middle of the document...

While China’s economic growth has received much attention in the popular literature, China researchers, when it comes to economic growth, tend to focus on narrow topics, measuring total factor productivity growth in enterprises in different ownership forms or investigating the growth prospects of individual industries or firms. For example, Douglas Allen (2002) documents the transformation in four industries in China and predicts the imminent emergence of world-class Chinese brands.
A 1997 World Bank policy analysis of current economic issues is supplemented by an estimate of China’s GDP in 2020 based on a closed-economy model. A systematic study of future economic growth in China that makes full use of the hard facts already available today, however, is still lacking.
Answers to the question of what we know today about the economic size of China ten or twenty years from now are relevant not only for the popular discourse on the new superpower and for China threat theorists and military strategists, but also for economists. For example, conventional economic wisdom holds that free trade benefits, by the laws of comparative advantage, all countries in the long run. Thus, a growing China, and growing trade between China and the U.S., benefits the U.S. But as Paul Samuelson (2004) within the framework of standard trade theory shows, a productivity gain in one country alone may, in fact, lead to a permanent loss in per capita real income in the other country; references to China abound.

This paper examines China’s future economic growth in three steps. First, it conducts a straightforward extrapolation of a stable, past growth trend into the future. A number of scenarios are played through in a comparison with the U.S. But extrapolation is not a particularly convincing research tool. Why should the past continue into the future?
One argument why past economic growth may continue into the future is that China’s economic growth matches standard growth patterns identified by theories of economic development and trade. These are structural change, catching up, and factor price equalization. China’s past economic growth fits well with all three. Furthermore, China’s reform period growth, within these three analytical frameworks, matches those of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan at an earlier stage of their development. Obviously, these four countries differ, as do the domestic and international circumstances under which they experienced a particular stage of development. But the differences need not be systematic with respect to the impact on the dependent variable economic growth. These growth patterns may well apply to China in the future, just as they already have to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan in the past.
The final step is to decompose GDP growth. Growth accounting in the production function framework turns out to not be useful due to the lack of a stable aggregate production function over time. An alternative is to decompose GDP growth following...

Other Papers Like Logistics

Logistics Essay

4504 words - 19 pages LOGISTICS is the function responsible for the flow of materials from suppliers into an organisation, through operations within the organisation, and then out to customers. Supply chain management, however, is about managing the flow of materials, components and information throughout the total pipeline from raw materials to end user, and is based on effective customer/supplier relationships to ensure quality, delivery, cost and flexibility

Logistics Essay

1052 words - 5 pages Logistics within Business Organization Name Institution Why have supply chain management issues often been ignored by senior management? In supply chain management, the term file and forget is very common. Most people in different levels of the supply chain have done this and have been at peace with it. In most cases, filed documents are not seen on a regular basis since people


1078 words - 5 pages Logistics; Case 8-1; Aero Marine Logistics Overview of numbers in the case; 1. Income There is a monthly income of (150 000 x 0.20 =) 30 000 US by the full sale of 150 000kg of food. 2. Fixed costs 1 Lakh = 2 222US, There will be needed to buy equipment to provide the containers with power. These cost 9 Lakh in total. This is (9 x 2 222 =) 19 998US. Also in the periods of extreme conditions there will be more energy costs. AML expects

Logistics Outline

969 words - 4 pages 4PL logistics providers — Scaling up supply-chain efficiency |About 75 per cent of the Fortune 100 companies and about 45 per cent of Fortune 500 companies have now gone in for 4PLs. | The term "4PL" was actually coined by the consulting group Accenture. In fact, they also hold the trademark to the name 4PL. Accenture defines a 4PL in the following manner: "A 4PL is an integrator that assembles the resources

Hk Logistics

632 words - 3 pages Overview Hong Kong’s free-port status, mature trading infrastructure and geographic location make it an ideal city from which to develop your logistics and supply chain management business. As trade with Mainland China and across the region continues to rise strongly, logistics providers with a strong business proposition will find a dynamic business community receptive to new technologies and services. The supply, storage and distribution of


2921 words - 12 pages 2012 Denise M. Capalbo Logistics 6/23/2012 2012 Denise M. Capalbo Logistics 6/23/2012 The hearts demonstrate our passion for our work and our customers’ passion for their businesses The We ♥ Logistics communications platform features 11 hearts – one universal and 10 illustrative. Each heart helps us tell the story of how UPS is logistics. The universal heart represents everything we do, while the illustrative hearts

Cca Logistics

6060 words - 25 pages Group Project Report (OMGT2087) Group Project Report (OMGT2087) Executive Summary This report aims to analysis the Australia Company Coca-Cola Amatil of the logistics and supply chain activities. Coca-Cola Amatil is an Australian beverage company which is a partner of Coca-Cola Company purchasing and distributing carbonated soft drinks from Coca-Cola license. In addition to this, CCA provides their own products of water

Logistics - 721 words

721 words - 3 pages Introduction You will assume that you still work as a financial analyst for AirJet Best Parts, Inc. The company is considering a capital investment in a new machine and you are in charge of making a recommendation on the purchase based on (1) a given rate of return of 15% (Task 4) and (2) the firm’s cost of capital (Task 5). Task 4. Capital Budgeting for a New Machine A few months have now passed and AirJet Best Parts, Inc. is considering

Logistics - 948 words

948 words - 4 pages Part 1. Report to Danny Wilco To: Danny Wilco From: Kay Smith Subject: Re: Ordering product for EBBD from the Kentucky Hooch and Beer Company Background: Our efforts to increase sales of Kentucky Swamp Brew, for our college aged customers, Brew received mixed support from area retailers. For example, our advertising campaign was initially productive, we received a 75% increase in retail orders for three continuous weeks (the duration of

Logistics - 785 words

785 words - 4 pages Chapter 7 Example 1 (Page 88) The CarryAll Luggage Company produces a line of luggage goods. The typical distribution plan is to produce finished goods inventories to be kept at the plant site. Goods are then shipped to company-owned field warehouses by way of common carriers. Rail is currently used to ship between the East Coast plant and a West Coast warehouse. The average transit time for rail shipments is T = 21 days. At each stocking

Logistics - 3381 words

3381 words - 14 pages Lalalala the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the Lalalala the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the Lalalala the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the Lalalala the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the Lalalala the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the Lalalala the the the the the the the the the the the

Related Essays

Logistics Essay 3547 Words

3547 words - 15 pages Logistics is the management of the flow of goods, information and other resources, including energy and people, between the point of origin and the point of consumption in order to meet the requirements of consumers (frequently, and originally, military organizations). Logistics involve the integration of information, transportation, inventory, warehousing, material-handling, and packaging. Logistics is a channel of the supply chain which adds

Logistics Essay 1655 Words

1655 words - 7 pages Logistics has an important relationship to manufacturing, marketing, finance, and other areas of the organization * Logistics Interfaces with Operations/Manufacturing * Logistics Interfaces with Marketing * Logistics Interfaces with Other Areas Interfaces w/operations/manufacturing -Length of production runs Balance economies of long production runs against increased costs of high inventories. -Seasonal demand

Logistics Essay 1541 Words

1541 words - 7 pages The Logistics System: A Key Element of Contraceptive Security Planning A logistics system provides excellent customer service by fulfilling the six “rights”: ensuring that the right goods, in the right quantities, in the right condition, are delivered to the right place, at the right time, for the right cost. Logistics Cycle Over the years, experts have developed a logistics cycle that describes the activities of a logistics system

Logistics Essay 2473 Words

2473 words - 10 pages Traffic network is always a special role in the economy of any country in the world. Observing any traffic system can give a panoramic view of a country’s economy as well as its development level. Similar to the traffic network concept, logistics industry level could give a judge to the development of manufacturing and servicing industries. Logistics as a business concept evolved only in the 1950s and now is familiar to the world but still