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Iran Economic Swot Essay

1804 words - 8 pages

Geopolitics, International Environment and Business

International risk management

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Geopolitics, International Environment and Business

Risks identification Are we leading towards economic war?

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Geopolitics, International Environment and Business

Several agencies seem to reinforce this idea, particularly regarding international trade

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“Public economic warfare”

Japan JETRO, Japan External Trade Organization (www.jetro.go.jp)

Created in 1958 to promote Japanese exports From the 80s it expands to developing countries. 21st century: To promote FDI into Japan To help small & medium sized companies to export.
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USA (1992, 1993): Bill Clinton ...view middle of the document...

weforum.org/global-risks-2013/

Source: Global risk 2010 WEF

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Source: McKinsey, Risks seeing around the corner

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Geopolitics, International Environment and Business

Risks identification Major international risks Political and Country risks
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By definition

Forfeiture / Expropriation / nationalization (Iran & oil companies, Bolivia & gas/oil, Argentinean oil 2012)
Non transfer / unconvertible local currency State /public company non payment

 

Politics influences how markets operate. Often the most unpredictable

economic events are political in origin, the result of flagging political willingness or capacity to maintain consistent and predictable economic environment . PWC survey, 2010

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Country risk – Political risk

Security (political) concerns
 

Revolution, Civil war, Clan wars, Takeover Terrorism, Hostage Psychology of the leaders Economy (debt, commercial balance ..), boycott Financial crisis, changes in international regulations and laws Increasing taxes Contracts cancellation Frauds & corruption (Transparency) Racket Prevention or not of natural disasters Environmental policy and law

Political changes
   

Business changes

Criminal concerns
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Natural concerns
 

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Country risk – Legal risk

Liability & repression could be different
 


 

Company law Fiscal law / tax evasion / bilateral treaty Accounting law Social & labor law Environmental law

International law
1973: Convention of Washington  1997: protocol of KYOTO (less emission of CO2)  1988: Basel I, published a set of minimal capital requirements for banks  2004: Basel II, recommendations on banking laws and regulations

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Geopolitics, International Environment and Business

Risks identification Major international risks Competitive risks
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Competition rules

Entry/exit barriers (absolute cost advantages, proprietary learning curve, access to inputs, economies of scale, capital requirements, switching costs, access to distribution, proprietary products …)

New competitors (same products)
New firms in emerging countries  Firms looking to increase benefits on (new) profitable sectors  Technological capabilities enhancement Examples: BRIC, Apple & IPhone => computers/mobile phone

Substitute products
Switching costs, price-performance  Buyer inclination to find alternatives  Technological rupture Examples: mobile phone/camera & photo, Minitel & Internet …

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Joint Ventures
Who rules the firms?  Real ownership?  power of decision / influence  Breaking the rules / contracts  free rider

Transfer of technology

“process of sharing of skills, knowledge, technologies, methods of manufacturing, samples of manufacturing and facilities among governments and other institutions to ensure that scientific and technological developments are accessible to a wider range...

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