This website uses cookies to ensure you have the best experience. Learn more

Consultant Essay

2454 words - 10 pages

Forecasting Methods Assignment
University of Phoenix
MGT 554: Operations Management 
Steven Williams
August 28, 2006

Introduction
Forecasting can be defined as Estimating or predicting future events or conditions. Forecasts may be long-term or short-term. The techniques used may be quantitative (often making sue of computers) or qualitative. Quantitative forecasting models may be classified into (a) causal models in which independent variables are used to forecast dependent variables, and (b) time series models, which produce forecasts by extrapolating the historical values of the variables of interest by, e.g., moving averages.
Seasonal Model
Seasonality is a ...view middle of the document...

A seasonal index of 1.25 indicates that the expected value for that month is 25% greater than 1/12 of the overall average. A seasonal index of 80 indicates that the expected value for that month is 20% less than 1/12 of the overall average (Hossein, 1994-2006).
Deseasonalizing Process
Deseasonalizing the data, also called Seasonal Adjustment is the process of removing recurrent and periodic variations over a short time frame, e.g., weeks, quarters, months. Therefore, seasonal variations are regularly repeating movements in series values that can be tied to recurring events. The Deseasonalized data is obtained by simply dividing each time series observation by the corresponding seasonal index (Hossein, 1994-2006).
Almost all time series published by the US government are already deseasonalized using the seasonal index to unmasking the underlying trends in the data, which could have been caused by the seasonality factor (Hossein, 1994-2006).
Forecasting
Incorporating seasonality in a forecast is useful when the time series has both trend and seasonal components. The final step in the forecast is to use the seasonal index to adjust the trend projection. One simple way to forecast using a seasonal adjustment is to use a seasonal factor in combination with an appropriate underlying trend of total value of cycles (Hossein, 1994-2006).
Technological Forecasting Model
Technological forecasting is a subset of futures research. Futures research is an umbrella term which encompasses "any activity that improves understanding about the future consequences of present developments and choices" (Amara and Salanik, 1972, p. 415). In defining forecasting, the authors offer the following progression. Forecasting is:
1. A statement about the future,
2. A probabilistic statement about the future:
3. A probabilistic, reasonably definite statement about the future:
4. A probabilistic, reasonably definite statement about the future, based upon an evaluation of alternative possibilities. (Amara and Salanik, 1972, p. 415)
Technological forecasting includes "all efforts to project technological capabilities and to predict the invention and spread of technological innovations" (Ascher, 1979, p. 165). Martino (1983) states that a technological forecast includes four elements: the time of the forecast or the future date when the forecast is to be realized, the technology being forecast, the characteristics of the technology or the functional capabilities of the technology, and a statement about probability (Donnelly, n.d.).
Forecasting a technology is a difficult task and includes "the uncertainty and unreliability of data, the complexity of 'real world' feedback interactions, the temptation of wishful or emotional thinking, the fatal attraction of ideology, [and] the dangers of forcing soft and somewhat pliable 'facts' into a preconceived pattern" (Ayers, 1969, p. 18).
These methods also rely...

Other Papers Like Consultant

Organization Development Consultant Recommendation Essay

1064 words - 5 pages 325 Military Intelligence Battalion Organizational Development Consultant Recommendations Nicole L. Anderson BUS300 Organizational Development 13 February 2016 325 Military Intelligence Battalion Organizational Development Consultant Recommendations Executive Summary As part of an Army wide reduction in forces, the 325 Military Intelligence has directly been affected by the military’s Forced Restructuring Initiative. The

Development Consultant Essay

7577 words - 31 pages INTRODUCTION TO ETHICS WHAT IS ETHICS Ethics is a major branch of philosophy, encompassing right conduct and good life. It is significantly broader than the common conception of analyzing right and wrong. A central aspect of ethics is "the good life", the life worth living or life that is simply satisfying, which is held by many philosophers to be more important than moral conduct. Simply put, ethics involves learning what is right or wrong, and

Business Consultant

1607 words - 7 pages Why has Nucor performed so well? - Nucor used plant location and growth tot its advantage - Unique organizational structure - Always acknowledged the importance for employee relations and satisfaction in the work place - Competetive advantage and a unique stratetegy What are the most important aspects of Nucor’s overalle approach to organization and control that help explain why this company is so successful

Artic Mining Consultant

1583 words - 7 pages 2.2 Individual Written Assignment – Case Study Report Assignment Overview The purpose of the case study report is to help you bridge theoretical and practical applications of organisational behaviour topics, while also helping you build important written communication and problem-solving skills. Analysing a case study allows you to simulate some of the complexities and ambiguities that are present in real organisational problems and

The Functional Consultant Has Tounderstand The Modules They Are Implementing And The Set Up And Configuration Options Available

365 words - 2 pages * The functional consultant has tounderstand the modules they are implementing and the set up and configuration options available, the key skill is being able to map the requirements of the customer to the capabilities of the ERP system. A mistake often made is to try and configure or customize the ERP system to match exactly an existing business process, rather than look to improve the processes. "A functional consultant is expected to generate

Business Consulting Paper

535 words - 3 pages Business Consulting Paper Leonard Eric Manalo University of Phoenix ~ MGT 527 Professor: Richard Arriaga June 26, 2013 Vision and explanation of a Business Consultant It is very important for a company to have a vision and a mission. A vision describes where the company is heading and the fulfillment of its goals. Whereas in mission, it explains the primary purpose of the company and provides the

Business Consulting

660 words - 3 pages Running head: Business Consulting Week 1: Business Consulting University of Phoenix MGT 527 A Vision of a Business Consultant A vision can mean the ability to anticipate possible future events and developments. In business, consultants use vision statement along with a mission statement to further guide, inspire, and provide direction to the organization and its employees. Further, vision

Kenworth Motor Case

841 words - 4 pages Kenworth Motor Case Study 1 After read the case, I don’t believe that the OD consultant was quite prepared for the meeting. He only knew very little about Mr. Denton such as his title, and his job tenure and very tiny information about Kenworth Motos’ Seattle truck manufacturing operations. In addition, the OD consultant had no focused agenda of what he would say and do. Ultimately, the OD consultant did not plan anything for this meeting at

Lactation Business Plan

3280 words - 14 pages * Private Practice Lactation Consultant Business Plan * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Executive summary Breastfeeding is not only a lifestyle choice but also an important health care choice. Any amount of time that a mother can do it will help both her and the baby. Many benefits of breast milk are noted for mothers, babies, and others. Breast milk has

Cignet Plastic Corporation

1207 words - 5 pages suggest an approach to return operations to normal. In addition, the consultant will review, the value of managers employing process thinking in finding solutions for quality concerns, the tools the consultant chose to disclose the information, and the reasons for the selection of the tools. President Information: Initially the president of Cignet Plastic Corporation adamantly sought to have an immediate process change. At the outset, McAfee’s

Negiotion Plan

792 words - 4 pages National Football League Negotiation The National Football League (NFL) players is seeking help from a consultant of ConsultWorks Incorporated to create a negotiating plan for the division of revenue between the players and the owners. According to University of Phoenix Negotiation Plan , “The National Football League Players Association (NFLPA) acts as a labor union for NFL players by negotiating with owners.” The consultant will assist the

Related Essays

Risk Consultant Essay

808 words - 4 pages ISSC 363 Risk Consultant 24 January 2016 Risk Consultant A risk assessment is a way to identify, evaluate, quantify, and prioritize risks (Gibson, 2011). They are primarily used to assess the overall security of a network from the eyes of an attacker in order to protect the network from intruders (Schmittling, n.d.). There are no regulations instructing organizations on how systems need to be controlled or

Consultant Report

2313 words - 10 pages Consultant Report: Pheonix Jewellers 04-74-234 April 7, 2015 Table of Contents Introduction 3 Background 3 Analysis 3 Target Market 3 Competition 4 Consumer Satisfaction 5 Business Environment 6 Social Environment 6 Physical Environment 7 SWOT Analysis 7 Recommendations 8 Conclusion 9 Appendix A 10 Appendix B 12 Appendix C 13 Appendix D 14 Appendix E 15 Introduction This report will analyze the

Consultant Essay

1310 words - 6 pages 1. If you receive a spam email, what should be done? a. Reply to it Incorrect: Replying to spam mail will only signal that the address is active and would only result in more spam b. Don’t reply to it Correct: Spam mails should never be replied to and should be marked as spam so that all future correspondence gets blocked. c. Forward them to friends or colleagues Incorrect: Forwarding spam mail to friends or colleagues

Consultant Essay

3790 words - 16 pages THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary - Public Date: 6/10/2013 GAIN Report Number: IN3056 India Post: New Delhi India’s Quick Service Restaurant Sector Growing Report Categories: Retail Foods Food Service - Hotel Restaurant Institutional Promotion Opportunities Approved By: David Williams Prepared By: Priya