Co-evolutionary Decision Making
Co-evolutionary gaming is a nontraditional form of scenario planning utilized by the U.S. Department of Defense, in strategic planning. Through co-evolutionary gaming, complicated strategic horizons can be better anticipated, and strategies can be altered to address what would typically be unexpected responses, to counter these challenges before they even happen, thereby blocking their adversaries. Utilizing this same technique can facilitate group decision making by taking advantage of group diversity and overcoming much of the challenges typically associated with the decision making process, through the technique's acknowledgment of the widest variety of ...view middle of the document...
Decision Based Teams
Plans and decisions made using this process are characteristically shortsighted at best, because they normally do not take the impact of the counter plans and actions that could possibly be taken by the affected parties into consideration. A decision taken based on available data could turn out to be worse than just maintaining the status quo if reactionary moves are considered. A simple but good example of this is the decision of a market newcomer to implement price reductions in order to grab market share. Based on available data, it seems so simple a decision to just cut prices since this is probably what the data will say. However, this decision erroneously assumes that the market share leaders will just do nothing. What the data does not show is that the market leaders are better equipped to fight in a price war than the newcomer because of their incumbent market volume. (Mintzberg 2010) The market leaders can even aggressively fight to the point where they bring down their prices below the breakeven point of the newcomer (which is normally higher) until such time that it collapses because its sales cannot support its operations. In today's increasingly competitive marketplace, strategic planning is tantamount to success. Staying one step ahead of the competition means industry leadership.
The standard description of decision-making consists of three elements: alternatives, states of the world, and outcomes. Decision makers select the best course of action given their beliefs about the world and the values they place on the outcomes. (Thompson 2011) Competitive decisions are complicated by the presence of intelligent opponents whose own actions influence the outcome for the decision maker. In addition, competitors sometimes design their actions to increase uncertainty about states of the world. These two additional sources of uncertainty may make selection of an action more difficult in competitive environments. The extension of microeconomics to game theory dominates the study of competitive decision-making. This frame draws unique coherence from economic assumptions of rational behavior. And it draws predictive power from strongly valid rules of influence that employ mathematical or logical operators. This strength comes at a price. Because the decision must be represented in a way that is compatible with the rules of inference, great simplicity and structure are required.
Decision Making is widely considered to be a primary function that distinguishes management from...