To: Steven Spielberg
Date: February 1, 2015
RE: Best time of year to launch a movie
I have identified some opportunities for you to produce a film and deliver it at the optimal time to maximize revenue. This data has been sourced for 15 years from 1994 to 2008. I will outline my findings in the following 10 bullet points:
Embedded Excel Data File:
1. Total Revenue Per Year for Each Year: 1994-2008
a. See tab #1 (All tabs and graphs in embedded excel file)
b. Total revenue has increased year over year in the period
2. Average Revenue Per Year for Each Year: 1994-2008
a. See tab #2
b. Average revenue has also increased
3. Average Revenue Per Month over the 15 Years of data
a. See tab #3
b. June, July, November, and December are the months with the largest average revenue over the period. July is the month with the highest average revenue. ...view middle of the document...
7. I suggest releasing a movie during the “in-season” which according to Wilson & Anderson (2012) is summer 6/15-7/15, and holiday 12/1-1/8. As you can see from the data in my analysis films such as Forrest Gump (1994), Toy Story (1995), Independence Day (1996), Men in Black (1997), Titanic (1998), The Grinch (2000), Two Towers (2002), Return of the King (2003), Revenge of the Sith (2005), Dead Man’s Chest (2006), and the Dark Knight (2008) were all released “in season” and all remained in a #1 box office position for at least 3 weeks post release. (See tab #6 Excel File)
8. See Figure 1 below for movie characteristics:
*Films highlighted were tied for “weeks at #1” in each respective year but had the highest opening weekend revenue among its counterparts.
9. Based on the research in question 8, it would appear that a Fantasy/Adventure film sourced from a remake or a sequel of an original screenplay with a PG-13 rating done by a studio such as Columbia Pictures or Universal Pictures could be the foundation for a blockbuster movie. “The blockbuster formula indicates that budgets will matter in creating big openings with super stars and superstar directors, and special effect do not hurt – and then add a known script base from a remake or a sequel and you have the “formula” “(Wilson & Anderson, 2012). The Numbers site states that 1300+ Adventure and Action films have grossed well over $68 billion from 1995-2015.
10. The data shows that the month with the highest average revenue is July, followed closely by June. (See tab 3). If you decide to release the film in July and a competitive film(s) poses a threat to the ex-post success of your film, you can also elect to release the film over the holiday “in season”, weeks 51 and 52, which have also historically shown high opening and high monthly average revenues.
Wilson, J., & Anderson, K. (2012). Exploring the Blockbuster Formula: A Mixed-Methods Approach for Understanding US Motion Picture Box Office Revenue.