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# Applying Time Series Methodologies Essay

516 words - 3 pages

What is the forecast for Blues Inc.? A team, playing the role of managers, has been selected to conduct a study applying time series methodologies. The study is to forecast future sales for the denim manufacturer, Blues Inc. A time series methodology is to be used in this simulation. A time series is a collection of data over a period of time. The trend is the long run direction of the time series. (Lind, Marchal & Wathen, 2004)The first assignment for the team was predicting the advertising budget. There needs to be an effective advertising strategy in place. The team needs to decide the variables that affect the advertising ...view middle of the document...

Blues Inc. ma need to increase storefront displays and promotional activities. The team decided to set a budget of \$126 million dollars. The retail coverage is expected to increase by two to three percent this year. The retail coverage may range between 85-86% with the current regression equation. The advertising budget works out to \$122 million dollars. The market share of Blues Inc. is six percent of the \$40 billion dollars. Expected sales this year work out to be \$2,400 million. Using the regression equation, the value of the budget is \$162 million dollars.The next step was to study the fluctuation in the market size to arrive at a sales forecast. The team looks at the time series data for the market size and chooses the average model and k-period required for forecasting. The team chose a k-period of five and a weighed moving average. The two periods weighed moving average model with a weight of 0.9 was the best option for Blues Inc.This team was brought in to predict future trends based on past production data. The team recommends a focus on the last three years of data to be able to determine the most practical trend of movement. Time series methodologies are very useful to companies to determine what is going to make the company money or why they are losing money.ReferencesLind, D.A., Marchal, W.G., & Wathen, S.A., 2004. Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics, 12e. The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2004. Retrieved from assigned reading on UOP rEsource.

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